Stat 220 Homework #4

ECO220Y1Y: Quantitative Methods in Economics, 2017/18, Prof. Murdock

L0301: Wed 11-1, KP 108; L0401: Wed 2-4, SS 2117; L0501: Tues 2-4, SS 2135

All three sections have Fridays 9-11 reserved for tests, tutorials, and other events

Syllabus

Portal

Schedule: slides, readings, HW, tutorials, tests

Office hours with Prof. Murdock: Thursdays, 2-4pm, GE 312

Office hours with TA Aly: Mondays, 3-4pm, GE 040

(Any schedule changes posted on this site)

Piazza

Aid sheets (for entire course)

Help from our TAs

The Data Analysis Course Module (DACM) on portal

Old tests/exams

Economics Study Centre: M/T/W/R: 11am – 5pm; F: 1pm-3pm

Main Floor of Economics Department, 150 St George Street

Last updated: March 13, 2018

ANNOUNCEMENTS:

Term test #5: Given the number of queries about Term Test #5, I’ll make a preliminary announcement about coverage much earlier than usual. Term Test #5 will focus on regression analysis (simple and multiple) and the related topic of differences between means. Hence, the emphasis will be on material from weeks 4 – 6 and weeks 17 – 24. As usual, we build on other topics, but Term Test #5 will not be cumulative in the sense that the final exam is cumulative. For now, please focus your attention on our weekly materials (homework, readings, DACM tutorials, portal quizzes, and lectures). Full announcements about Test #5 (including old test questions) will be posted, as usual, when the test date is nearer. There have also been some questions about the marking scheme as it relates to Term Test #5, but the syllabus directly answers those questions: make sure to see the top half of page 4 and the bottom of page 6 through the top of page 7. [posted March 13]

dacm module e.2 tutorials on friday, March 16: The DACM Module E.2 tutorials are on Friday morning (see p. 6 of the DACM Handbook for rooms and times for all six sections). Carefully review pages 96 - 97 of the DACM Handbook ahead of your tutorial. Ideally, also read through pages 98 - 99 ahead of time. [posted March 9]

Portal quiz 21: A friendly reminder that Portal Quiz 21 will be due on Monday, March 19 at 6:00pm as usual. [posted March 12]

test #4 results: An e-mail was sent from Crowdmark to your utoronto.ca e-mail account on Thursday, March 8 around 10:05am with your marked Term Test #4 and a message to the class. The message links to the test and solutions, which are also posted below under Old tests/exams. [posted March 8]

Final exam: The date, time and location of our final exam has been set by A&S: Wednesday, April 25, 9:00am – noon. [posted March 2]

Economics study centre: The Economics Study Centre is now open. It is located on the main floor of the Economics Department, 150 St George Street, and has extensive hours. On Mondays through Thursdays it is open from 11am through 5pm and on Fridays it is open from 1pm through 3pm. We have an impressive team of Peer Mentors for ECO220Y1Y, including the only student to get a grade of 100 (!) in our course in more than a decade! In alphabetical order by last name, these are the Peer Mentors who specifically took ECO220Y1Y with me:

·        Emilie Heron

·        Gulru Inan

·        Zachary Kroll

·        Arvind Kulathu

·        Yu Mao

·        Paul Pavel

·        Saarah Sheikh

·        Justin Yau

·        Xiaotian Zhang

Further, I have met or worked with several of the other Peer Mentors (who I do not know from ECO220Y) and I would also recommend them. You can see the full schedule. Also, I have provided the Economics Study Centre with a copy of our textbook. [posted September 18]

Portal quiz 20: A friendly reminder that Portal Quiz 20 will be due on Monday, March 12 at 6:00pm as usual. [posted March 5]

dacm module e.1 tutorials on friday:The DACM Module E.1 tutorials are on Friday morning (see p. 6 of the DACM Handbook for rooms and times for all six sections).Carefully review pages 91 - 93 of the DACM Handbook ahead of your tutorial. Ideally, also read through pages 94 - 95 ahead of time. [posted March 5]

Portal quiz 19: A friendly reminder that Portal Quiz 19 will be due on Monday, March 5 at 6:00pm as usual. [posted February 27]

term test #4, First page, supplement: Here is the first page of Test #4: please review the instructions ahead of time. Also, as any FYI, here are the first four pages of the supplement for Test #4: you will be given a complete copy of the supplement at the test. [posted February 27]

TA aid centres:For the TA Aid Centres running right after Reading Week, find the details posted as a portal announcement. [posted February 16]

SOME ADVICE FOR TEST #4: Here are a few specific pieces of advice as you prepare for Term Test #4:

·         Make sure you carefully study “Logarithms in Regression Analysis with Asiaphoria” including the associated homework and the closely related DACM Modules B.2 and B.3.

·         Make sure you understand the concepts of statistical significance (and at which significance levels) and economic significance. These concepts are covered extensively in our course materials (e.g. Lecture 14). Note that one of the two has to do with point estimates and the other also involves standard errors.

·         Make sure you are skilled at identifying an appropriate approach to a question: should you just look at a point estimate, should you compute a CI estimate, should you be thinking about hypothesis testing. Similarly, make sure you can distinguish situations that call for making an inference about: a single proportion, the difference between proportions, a single mean, the difference between means with independent samples, or the difference between means with paired data. Notice how we’ve practiced these skills by applying course concepts to real research and tables of results.

[posted February 16]

term test #4: Our fourth term test is on Friday, March 2 from 9:10am through 11am. Term Test #4 will consist of open-ended questions (not multiple-choice) and will focus on material from weeks 5 – 6 and 12 – 18 (Lectures 5, 6, 12 – 18, HW 5, 6, 12 – 18, Chapters 7, 11 – 14 and Sections 18.1 – 18.2 of the textbook, and Portal Quizzes 5, 6, 12 – 18), including“Logarithms in Regression Analysis with Asiaphoria”, including“The Normal Table: Read It, Use It,” and including DACM Modules B.2, B.3, C.2, D.1 and D.2.Also, the material from Sections 9.1 – 9.3 on random variables and variances and the first half of Lecture 8 (Slides 1 – 9) are specifically referenced in later material and you still need to know them. Term Test #4 will not include new material from Lecture 19 and HW 19. Also, our course TAs will be running TA Aid Centres (team office hours) to help answer your questions (these are in addition to the usual weekly office hours). The TA Aid Centres start on Friday, February 16: see the portal announcement for details. [posted February 12]

TEST #4, OLD TEST QUESTIONS: Below are some suggested old test questions. Remember to use solutions only to grade your own complete answers: peeking at solutions eliminates most of the value of looking at an old test question.

·         Test #1: Oct 2017: Question 5;

·         Test #2: Nov 2017: Questions 1, 4, and 6;

·         Test #3: Jan 2018: Questions 2, 4, and 5;

·         Test #1: Nov 2016: Questions 1 and 6;

·         Test #2: Jan 2017: Questions 3 and 5;

·         Test #3: Feb 2017: Entire test;

·         Test #2: Dec 2015: Questions 1, 2, and 4;

·         Test #3: Feb 2016: Questions 2, 3, 4, and 5;

·         Test #4: Mar 2016: Questions 1, 3, and 4; NOTE: I exclude questions on material we have not covered yet;

·         Test #2: June 26, 2015: Questions 1, 3, and 4;

·         Test #3 “Midterm”: Jan 2015: Questions 2, 3, 4, and 5;

·         Test #4 “One Question”: Feb 2015: Entire test;

·         Test #5 “MCQ”: Mar 2015: Questions 1 – 4, 6, 8, 9, 15, 16; NOTE: I exclude questions on material we have not covered yet;

·         Term Test #2: Jan 2014: Questions 1, 2, 3, 5;

·         One Question Test #2: Feb 2014: Entire test;

·         Term Test #3: Apr 2014: Questions 1 – 9, 15, 16, 24, 32; NOTE: I exclude questions on material we have not covered yet;

You can find the above tests and the solutions posted under Old tests/exams. [posted February 12]

TEST #4, LOGISTICS: Test #3 is on Friday, March 2 from 9:10am – 11:00am. Arrive at your test room, within the Exam Centre, by 9:00am at the latest to ensure you have the full time to write the test. Rooms are assigned by last name:

·         EX 100: Last names A through R;

·         EX 310: Last names S through Wong;

·         EX 320: Last names Wu through Z.

You may bring your bags and coats to your seat BUT they have to be closed and all electronic devices including cell phones must be turned OFF. Remember to bring:

·         PENCILS and ERASERS;

·         A non-programmable calculator;

·         YourUofTTCard (student id card).

Your test papers must stay face-up and closed on your desk until the start of the test is announced. [posted February 12]

DACM Module D online test:A reminder that the DACM Module D Online Test opens at 6:00pm on Tuesday, February 13 and is due by 6:00pm on Monday, February 26. [updated February 12]

TA office hours:Our TA Aly continues to have weekly office hours on Mondays, 3-4pm in GE 040 (basement level of 150 St George). For Reading Week, because Monday is a holiday, he will have office hours from 2:00 – 3:00pm on Thursday, Feb. 22 in GE 313. [posted February 7]

bonus portal quiz 18:A Bonus Portal Quiz 18 will open at noon on Friday, February 16 and will be due by noon on Friday, February 23, which is during Reading Week. The Bonus Portal Quiz 18 is not required. However, it can replace your lowest portal quiz mark so far (i.e. on portal quizzes 1 – 17). Completing the Bonus Portal Quiz 18 cannot hurt your mark: if you do worse on it than any previous portal quiz it does not replace a higher mark. Also, Term Test #4 will include the material in week 18 so completing the Bonus Portal Quiz 18 is good preparation. [posted February 6]

TA aid centres:The next batch of TA Aid Centres start on Friday, February 16: 9:10 – 11am in SS 2135 with TAs Elaine and Ruizhi; 10:10 – 11am in SS 2117 with TAs Louis and Nora. Additional TA Aid Centreswill be held after Reading Week (with details posted as a portal announcement). [posted February 9]

Portal quiz 17:A friendly reminder that Portal Quiz 17 will be due on Monday, February 12 at 6:00pm as usual. [posted February 6]

DACM Module D.2:Your DACM Module D.2 tutorials are on Friday morning, February 9. Do at least a quick read of the entire Module D.2 – pages 80 – 84 in the DACM Handbook – before Friday’s tutorial. Carefully read pages 80 through top of page 81 before the tutorial. [posted February 5]

DACM Module D:Your first TA tutorials for DACM Module D are on Friday morning, February 2. Do at least a quick read of the entire Module D.1 – pages 76 – 79 in the DACM Handbook – before Friday’s tutorial. Carefully read pages 76 through top of page 77 before the tutorial. [posted January 25]

portal quiz 16: A friendly reminder that Portal Quiz 16 is due on Monday, February 5 by 6:00pm. [posted February 1]

test #3 results: An e-mail was sent from Crowdmark to your utoronto.ca e-mail account on Thursday, January 25 around 2:56pm with your marked Term Test #3 and a message to the class. The message links to the test and solutions, which are also posted below under Old tests/exams. [posted January 25]

portal quiz 15:A friendly reminder that Portal Quiz 15 is due on Monday, January 29 by 6:00pm. [posted January 25]

ta tutorial: On Friday, January 26 you have a regular 50-minute TA tutorial (i.e. not a DACM tutorial) titled “Hypothesis testing review of rejection region approach and power.” L0301: 9:10 – 10am SS 2117 (TA Aly); L0401: 10:10 – 11am SS 2117 (TA Aly); L0501: 10:10 – 11am SS 2135 (TA Elaine) [posted January 16]

office hours: On Thursday, January 25th my office hours are 3:00 – 5:00pm. They will return to their usual time (2:00 – 4:00) the following week. [posted January 22]

portal quiz 13/14:

Syllabus¶

Instructor & TAs¶

Instructors¶

Jonathan Taylor

  • Office: Sequoia Hall #137
  • Phone: 723-9230,
  • Email
  • Office hours: Th 1:00-3:00

Lucy Xia

  • Office: Sequoia Hall #244
  • Phone: 497-8146
  • Email
  • Office hours: Friday 10:30-12:30

Teaching Assistants¶

Cyrus DiCiccio

  • Email
  • Office hours : Tuesday 11:00-1:00 in Sequoia Hall 105

Jing Miao

  • Email
  • Office hours : Wednesday 3:00-5:00 in 420-245

Paulo Orenstein

  • Email
  • Office hours : Monday 10:30-12:30 in Sequoia Hall 220

Jun Yan

  • Email
  • Office hours : Monday 4:30-6:30 in Sequoia Hall 220

Office hours¶

As a general rule, we ask students NOT to complete the assignments during TAs’ in office hours. This will be easier if students do not use laptops while in TAs’ office hours.

Schedule & Location¶

M-Th 9:30-10:20, 420-040. F 9:30-10:20, 420-040; 11:30-12:20, Sequoia 200; 3:30-4:20, Sequoia 200.

Textbook¶

Statistics, Freedman, Pisani & Purves. Required

Prerequisites¶

Some familiarity with elementary algebraic notation at the high school level is assumed, but there is no calculus prerequisite.

Course organization¶

  • There will be four lectures per week (M-Th 9:30-10:20).
  • There will be quizzes every two weeks held on Wednesdays.
  • Friday’s session (F 9:30-10:20, 11:30-12:20, 3:30-4:20) will be devoted to problem sessions held by the TAs. There are three sessions, with the same material; feel free to attend any one of them.
  • All relevant class information, such as homework assignments, solutions, and organizational matters, will be posted on the coursework web page.

Evaluation¶

  • weekly homework: 20%
  • 5 quizzes: 40%
  • final exam: 40%

Homework¶

  • There will be weekly homework assignments, run through our online system
  • You may discuss homework problems with other students and with TAs in office hours, but you have to prepare the solutions yourself.
  • As a general rule, we ask students NOT to complete the assignments during TAs’ in office hours. This will be easier if students do not use laptops while in TAs’ office hours.
  • You must show your work (where necessary) for full credit (on quizzes as well).

Homework schedule¶

The homeworks will all follow the same schedule every week: due Fridays and Tuesdays.

Final Exam¶

According to the exam schedule our exam is to be held on Saturday June 4, at 8:30 AM.

Notes¶

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